Speaker
Description
We perform a comprehensive analysis of cosmic-ray propagation using the time-dependent AMS-02 flux measurements covering a full solar cycle, with particular emphasis on the role of solar modulation. We fit three solar modulation prescriptions: the standard force-field approximation, an extended force-field model with a rigidity break, and the HelMod model. The inclusion of time-resolved antiproton data provides a unique probe of charge-sign–dependent modulation effects and low-energy systematics. Across all models, we identify systematic uncertainties of order 10–15\% in the reconstructed local interstellar spectra and propagation parameters, driven by limitations in current solar modulation modelling. Compared to the percent level error of current measurements, these uncertainties significantly limit the precision of cosmic-ray studies. Future time-dependent measurements spanning a full 22-year solar cycle will be crucial to reduce these uncertainties.
